Dr Amulya Chevuturi, a hydroclimate data scientist at the UK »Ê¹ÚÌåÓý¹ú¼ÊÓéÀÖ for Ecology & Hydrology, discusses an exciting research finding that could help the UK better prepare for droughts...â€�
As UK droughts become more common and severe due to climate change, finding their causes is important to predict them earlier and thus prepare for them more effectively. Our latest research reveals a link between the North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and summer droughts in the UK, with signs showing up as early as 18 months before the drought happens.�
We found that specific patterns of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, which are influenced by freshwater from melting ice, can set off a chain reaction. This leads to a series of conditions in ocean and atmosphere that ultimately shifts the usual path of storms (ie jet stream) from the UK, leading to drier summer months. �
Using examples of four extreme UK summer droughts � 1976, 1995, 2018 and 2022 � we traced this pathway in detail, from ocean changes all the way to reduced river flows across the country.�
Here is a summary of the sequence of oceanic and atmospheric changes that ultimately lead to drought conditions in the UK:�
- Freshwater enters the North Atlantic Ocean, changing how the different layers of ocean mix.�
- This forms patterns of cold and warm regions in the ocean surface.�
- These ocean patterns influence the atmosphere and push the storm tracks north of UK.�
- Fewer storms lead to less rain and lower river flows for the UK during summer.�
This finding is very important because current seasonal forecasts for UK river flows are limited, that far in advance for summer. �
Our work shows that there is a real potential to use these North Atlantic Ocean signals to predict drought conditions much earlier. Warnings with such long lead times, allow a greater window to prepare, whether by managing water supplies or planning what crops to plant and when.�
Our findings are not just important for the UK, the same ocean-driven patterns may help predict hydroclimate extremes in other parts of Europe, too. So we are now investigating the impacts of these patterns on drought conditions across the continent.. �
For more information, please read the open access paper in Nature Communications Earth and Environment (DOI: )