Aims and objectives:
Evidence suggests that any future agricultural intensification could be detrimental to natural capital and associated ecosystem services, while extensification of management may provide environmental benefits, but with lower productivity. Scenarios of agricultural intensification will also interact strongly with climate. Accurate prediction of the environmental impacts of future agricultural scenarios and the scales at which these will operate is central to the formulation of effective mitigation strategies and sustainable farming systems.
The aims of this work package are to:
- To predict the effects of changes to agricultural management on water quality and nutrient losses;
- To predict the impacts of changes to agricultural management on soil carbon pools and greenhouse gas fluxes from soils and waters;
- To develop our understanding of the biological underpinning of ecosystem resilience to the impacts of future stressors resulting from agricultural and climate change;
- To develop an ecosystem services assessment tool for grassland and arable systems.
Key outcomes:
- Robust predictions of the impacts of future agricultural management on soil carbon, GHG emissions, nutrient fluxes and water quality
- A database compiling all known response and effects traits for crop pollinators and pest predators
- Models describing the resilience of biodiversity-mediated ecosystem services to agricultural change
- Strategies to increase the resilience of agro-ecosystems to future environmental stressors to ensure continuity of food supply
- A GIS-based ecosystem services assessment tool for grassland and arable systems that operates at a hydrogeomorphic unit scale
Key products and datasets:
(CHESS).
Analysis and simulation of the Long-Term / Large-Scale interactions of C, N and P in UK land, freshwater and atmosphere ()
Relevant publications:
A.P. Whitmore (2007) Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, Volume 55, Issue 2, Pages 71鈥�88.
L. Wu, M.B. McGechan, N. McRoberts, J.A. Baddeley, C.A. Watson (2007) Ecological Modelling. Volume 200, Issue 3-4, Pages 343鈥�359.
E. Tipping et al. (2012) Ecological Modelling. Volume 247, Pages 11鈥�26.
D. S. Jenkinson, and K. Coleman (2008) European Journal of Soil Science, Volume 59, Issue 2, Pages 400鈥�413.
ZM Harris, et al. (2014) . Biofuels, Volume 5, Issue 2, Pages 111-116.
B.A. Woodcock, et al. (2013) Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. Volume 171, Pages 1-8.
T, H. Oliver et al. (2015) Nature Communications, In press.
E,Tipping, et al. (2015) . Website.
E,Tipping, et al. (2016) . Website.
P Nadena, et al. (2016) Science of The Total Environment, Volume 572, Pages 1471鈥�1484.
Eigenbrod, F et al. (2011) Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences. Volume 278, Issue 1722, Pages 3201-3208.
Lead scientists:
(皇冠体育国际娱乐 for Ecology & Hydrology)
(皇冠体育国际娱乐 for Ecology & Hydrology)
(皇冠体育国际娱乐 for Ecology & Hydrology)
(Rothamsted Research)
(Rothamsted Research)
(Rothamsted Research)